The forces that support fiat money system look fragile, and over the next decade some of them may disintegrate. As a result, the demand for alternative currencies – from gold to cryptocurrencies – will grow, as the German banking giant Deutsche Bank said in its report “Imagine” 2030.
“Despite the fact that many people complain about cryptocurrencies because they are limited by regulatory barriers, we believe that the entry of digital currencies into our lives is inevitable,” says the report of Deutsche Bank Research
Although cryptocurrencies cannot be used as a means of payment, despite such well-known advantages as security, speed, minimal transaction fees, ease of storage and relevance in the digital age, everything may change in the next decade.
Researchers estimate that if current trends continue, 200 million users of blockchain wallets may emerge in 2030, and eventually the cryptocurrency may displace cash.
“According to a primary study by dbDig (Deutsche Bank Data Innovation Group), almost two-thirds of consumers prefer dematerialized funds to cash payments, while others are concerned about anonymity. These are the two things that cryptocurrencies do best,” the report says.
In addition, despite the bans, China and India will play an important role.
Meanwhile, the researchers stressed that the cryptocurrencies must overcome three major obstacles in order to become widespread:
“First, they must be legitimized in the eyes of governments and regulators. This requires stabilizing prices and providing benefits to both sellers and consumers.
They should also take into account the global reach of the payment market. This requires alliances with key stakeholders – mobile apps such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, card providers such as Visa and Mastercard, and retailers such as Amazon and Walmart.
To enable the transition to a fully digital platform, the financial system must be prepared to overcome power outages and cyberattacks.
However, “fiat money systems must demonstrate instability and be subject to high inflation, all things being equal.
According to researchers, it is possible that inflation will increase, so people will have doubts about the sustainability of fiat money.
By 2030, demand for alternative currencies is likely to increase significantly,” the document states. “It is difficult to say whether or not fiat currencies will survive the political dilemma of the next decade. Authorities will have to find a way to balance high yields with record levels of debt.
Interestingly, the survey showed that less than a third of Japanese citizens surveyed were in favour of mass introduction of the cryptocurrency. The Japanese Ministry of Education surveyed about 3,000 citizens, 82% of whom said they wanted to see more achievements in the field of robotics. 80% of respondents said they expect a future in which 5G telecommunications networks will play a key role. And only 30% of respondents aged 15-69 said that cryptocurrencies will play a key role in the future